Most D365 implementation quotes I see are wrong by 20 to 40 percent. That's not a controversial claim if you've been doing this work for a while. Ask any senior practitioner privately and you'll hear the same answer.
The interesting question isn't whether quotes overrun. It's why they overrun in the same predictable ways, every time. After fifteen years scoping D365 engagements across six countries, including F&O, Business Central, CE, HR, and Project Operations, I've watched the same patterns appear in nearly every post-mortem.
This piece isn't about the dramatic implementation failures. Those have other causes. This is about the quiet 20 to 40 percent overruns that nobody calls a failure but everybody quietly knows happened.
Four reasons, ranked by how often I've seen them.
Discovery missed something specific.
Usually integration depth. Sometimes data volume. Occasionally a regulatory requirement that wasn't asked about because the discovery template didn't have a question for it.
I watched a $2M D365 F&O engagement balloon to $3.4M because nobody asked, in discovery, whether the client's existing financial close process required tax adjustments at the legal entity level for international consolidation. They had operations in eight countries. The original quote assumed three. The math on three to eight is not linear, and the team that builds the chart of accounts in country one is not the team that builds it in country eight.
The fix isn't more questions. The fix is structured discovery that catches what's missing, not just what's said.
A discovery call is conversational. People volunteer what they think is relevant. They don't volunteer what they don't know is relevant. The job of a senior consultant is to know what to ask. The job of good scoping is to make sure those questions get asked even when the senior consultant isn't the one in the room.